Given the complexity of the matter, a working definition of AI is the capability of a computer system to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, and decision-making.
The risk in using AI in warfare is that the asymmetrical development of the commercial autonomous systems market would likely result in a lack of expertise for governments and militaries, which could lead to compromised and unsafe autonomous systems, both fully and semi-autonomous.
Both military and commercial robots incorporate ‘artificial intelligence’ (AI) that could make them capable of undertaking tasks and missions on their own. To be able to demonstrate an independent capacity for knowledge and expert-based reasoning for an AI system is directly tied to the ability of developers to design advanced autonomous systems for AI in military systems.
There are no such autonomous systems currently in operation in the military. Most ground robots are teleoperated, essentially meaning that a human is still directly controlling a robot from some distance away. Most military UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) are only slightly more sophisticated. They have some low-level autonomy that allows them to navigate, and in some cases land, without human intervention.
While current operating systems are more automatic than autonomous, there are significant global efforts in the research and development of autonomous systems. Incremental progress in such military system development is occurring in many countries in air, ground, on water and underwater vehicles with varying degrees of success. Several types of an autonomous helicopter that can be directed with a smartphone by a soldier in the field are in development in the US, in Europe, and in China. Autonomous ground vehicles such as tanks and transport vehicles are in development worldwide, as are autonomous underwater vehicles.
There are many reasons for the lack of success in bringing these technologies to maturity, including cost and unforeseen technical issues, but equally problematic are organizational and cultural barriers. There are, however, other organizational issues limiting the operational implementation of autonomous systems, and one that is increasingly problematic is the shift in advanced development from military to commercial settings. Military autonomous systems development has been slow especially in driverless cars.
Driverless car development originated with a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) program in 2004. When the programended, driverless cars could move only slowly through closed courses, and not without accidents. A decade later, the industry is on the verge of commercializing driverless cars around the world. This rapid progress is a result of the significant industry-sponsored R&D investment, as well as competition for the multi-billion-dollar automotive consumer market. Meanwhile, there has been very little progress in military autonomous vehicle development.
The inability of the military to advance its autonomy programmers is evidently linked to the growth in autonomous systems in the commercial market, not only on the ground but also in the air and in other domains, particularly driverless cars. The aerospace and defense; automotive; and information and communication sectors are core to the development of autonomous systems, and so tracking spending there gives insight into the speed and extent of innovation.
One critical issue with regard to the future of warfare is whether defense companies will have the capacity to develop fire weapons. Although it is not in doubt that AI is going to be part of the future of militaries around the world, the landscape is changing quickly and in potentially disruptive ways. AI is advancing but given the current struggle to infuse computers with true knowledge and expert-based behaviors, as well as limitations in perception sensors, it will be many years before AI will be able to approximate human intelligence in high-uncertainty settings as epitomized by the fog of war.
It is understandable that many people want to ban autonomous weapons, given the present inability of AI to reason in such high-stakes settings. The complexity of the field means that prohibition must be carefully scoped. Autonomous guidance systems for missiles on drones will likely be strikingly similar to those that deliver packages, so banning one could affect the other.
The impact of the rapid expansion of the commercial market on autonomous systems development cannot be overstated, and an even bigger problem in the short term is to understand the global implications in the power base of AI expertise. Ultimately, the growth in the commercial information technology and automotive sectors, in terms of both attracting top talent and expanding autonomous systems capabilities in everyday commercial products, could be a double-edged sword that will undoubtedly affect militaries around the world in as yet unimagined ways.